Personally, I’ve gotten so that I now use a kind of two-track analysis. First, what are the factors that really govern the interests involved, rationally considered? And second, what are the subconscious influences where the brain at a subconscious level is automatically doing these things — which by and large are useful, but which often misfunction.

我现在采用了一种双轨分析的方法。首先，我会理性地分析真正影响各方利益的因素是什么。其次，我会考虑大脑在潜意识层面是如何自动处理这些事情的——大多数情况下，这种自动反应是有用的，但有时也会出错。

I’m quoting from Poor Charlie’s Almanack, where Munger says this in the context of stock picking. But I believe — and he asserts — that this is useful in the general case.

我引用了《穷查理宝典》中的内容，芒格在谈论选股时说了这句话。不过，我认为——而且他也强调——这句话在一般情况下也很有用。

This makes sense. If you reflect on Munger’s two track trick, you’ll quickly realise that it is simply common sense, adapted from the heuristics and biases research program established by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. After all, if human misjudgment is a thing, then we should adjust for such misjudgment when analysing human behaviour.

这很合理。如果你回顾一下芒格的双轨思维，你会迅速意识到这其实就是常识，只是借鉴了心理学家丹尼尔·卡尼曼和阿莫斯·特沃斯基建立的启发式和偏见研究计划。毕竟，如果人类会犯错误，那我们在分析人类行为时就应该对此进行调整。

The two steps, again: in your first step — you think about the rational and economic factors that go into some decision. Then, you consider the psychological factors that distort those factors.

首先，你要考虑影响决策的理性和经济因素。接着，再考虑那些可能扭曲这些因素的心理因素。

As with all things Munger, this bit of common sense is uncommonly well-stated. It might not be clear to a reader of Thinking: Fast and Slow that Kahneman’s research can be used in this manner. But it’s impossible to unsee it or unthink it once you do.

正如芒格总是擅长用简单明了的方式表达事情，虽然读《思考：快与慢》的读者可能不会立即意识到卡尼曼的研究可以这样应用，但一旦你领悟了，就很难再忽视或忘记。