Making decisions, even in areas you know relatively well, usually involves an element of uncertainty. Sometimes decisions can be made quickly, and uncertainty is acceptable or desirable. Other times, decisions are made slowly and deliberately to remove as much uncertainty as possible.
做决定的时候,即使是在你比较熟悉的领域,通常也会有不确定性。 有时候可以迅速做出决定,此时不确定性是可以接受甚至是有益的。 另外一些情况下,决策需要缓慢而慎重地进行,以尽量减少不确定性。
Once you are faced with a decision, the question becomes whether you should make it fast or slow.
一旦面临决策时,关键在于你需要快速做出决定还是慢慢考虑后再做决定。
Do you gather as much information as possible, knowing the process of gathering information slows you down and carries a cost? Or do you make it quickly with imperfect information?
你是会在知道收集信息会拖慢进度并带来成本的情况下,尽可能收集多的信息呢?还是在信息不全的情况下快速做决定?
Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon.com, considers decisions like doors. He asks himself if the decision is a one-way door or a two-way door. What’s the difference?
亚马逊的创始人杰夫·贝索斯把决策看作是门。他会问自己这个决策到底是单向门还是双向门。那么区别在哪呢?
Once you walk through a one-way door, you can’t come back. It’s irreversible. With a two-way door, on the other hand, you can walk through, look around, and easily come back to where you started.
当你走过一道单向门时,就无法回头,是不可逆的。然而,通过双向门时,你可以进去看看,然后很容易回到原来的地方。
In a shareholder letter, Bezos wrote...
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